Design guru Adrian Newey fears that one team will come out on top following the rules overhaul in 2026.

In 2014, the new engine formula saw Mercedes come out on top, while Newey and Red Bull were best prepared in 2022.

However, next year sees both the engine and chassis regulations overhauled and Newey fears that as was the case in 2014 and 2022 one team will get it right from the outset, with the manufacturer teams most likely to lead the way.

"The reality is I can't remember another time in Formula 1 when both the chassis regulations and the regulations have changed simultaneously," he tells Auto Motor und Sport. "And in this case the chassis regulations have been very much written to try to compensate, let's say, for the power unit regulations.

"So, it's an extra dimension," he adds. "I think engine manufacturers will have learnt to an extent on the lack of preparation that the rivals to Mercedes did prior to that change (2014) but there has to be a chance that one manufacturer will come out well on top and it'll become a power unit-dominated regulation, at least to start with."

Of course, for 2026 Newey's team, Aston Martin, drops Mercedes in favour of Honda, which, despite a nightmare start under the 2014 regulations eventually came good, scoring 64 wins to Mercedes 124. In those eleven seasons, Ferrari scored 24 wins and Renault just 16.

As the sport seeks to become ever more sustainable, from 2026 the MGU-H is ditched, while the split between ICE and electric power will be a full 50/50 split.

"There's a chance, if it's on the combustion engine side of it that somebody comes up with a dominant combustion engine, that will last through the length of the formula," warns Newey. "Because the way the regulations are written, it's quite difficult for people who are behind to catch up. If it's on the electrical side, then there's much more ability to catch up if you're behind."

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READERS COMMENTS

1. Posted by kenji, 28/01/2025 23:43

"My initial reaction to the rather 'catch all' comments by Newey is that I expect it to be far closer that in the past when new regs were introduced. With the single most complicated part of the existing power unit now binned it will be, I think, closer than expected. This is where the cost cap has it's most powerful effect....fortunately."

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2. Posted by Tyrbiter, 28/01/2025 20:39

"Hybrid-schmybrid, and it just gets worse.
I won't be listening to the sound of these cars at the Gasworks Hairpin in Monaco (see what I did there) because all I'm going to hear is the sound of the ICE spinning to fill up the stupid battery pack. I might as well get out my Scalextric set and play with that."

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3. Posted by Superbird70, 28/01/2025 19:37

"So I guess I am rooting for Sauber, er, Kick Sauber, er, Stake F1, er, Audi. The team all by itself development wise. The Hulk F1 World Champion in 2026."

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4. Posted by Celtic Tiger, 28/01/2025 15:30

"With the Merc dominance, them having inside knowledge of the regulations well before all the other competitors not withstanding, it was the FIA's inflexibility to allow in season development for rivals to catch up. What with that ridiculous token system etc. it gave Merc a few seasons that were, basically, free championships.

That said, Audi may surprise. Considering how much time they've had to develop versus everyone else who has had to split focus on current competition and future development. Its nothing new in F1, really, when a big regulation change rears its head. There is always someone who had the brilliance to figure out a loop hole and is able to do critical damage to everyone else before their innovation is either banned by FIA or some of the other teams recover fast enough to mount a challenge. What would be interesting is to see who nails the chassis/aero side and who in contrast gets the power units right. I have reservations that one team will come out in 2026 flexing on both ends of it. If, however, Newey's "fear" becomes a reality and one team does go on a domination run I hope its not the usual suspects that have had the run of it for the past 13 years prior to last season."

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5. Posted by Chester, 28/01/2025 12:27

"My hope is that the dominant team, if any, is any team besides Verstappen's team and Hamilton's team.

The same driver winning year after year is soul killing- and to me, extends a part of adulation that belongs to the designer to the driver.
"

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6. Posted by Spindoctor, 28/01/2025 12:09

"This seems highly probable, but Newey shouldn't complain - once Honda delivered the oomph, his brilliant chassis helped RBR to dominate for the much of the current formula. The potential for upsets is entertainingly high!"

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Newey fears one team domination in 2026

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