Christian Horner admits that he expects to see a lot of familiar looking cars on the grid this season as rivals seek to emulate the success of the all-conquering RB19.

Arguably the most successful car in the history of the sport, having won 21 of the season's 22 races, there is no doubt that the Red Bull RB19 was the target to which others aspire.

Though team boss Christian Horner and Max Verstappen have played down a 2024 (and possibly 2025) repeat, the fact is that with no real rule changes either Red Bull would have to make a catastrophic mistake with its winning car or rivals would need to take an impressive step forward.

To that end, a number of teams have already admitted that their latest contender will see a return to the drawing board, with many likely to use the concept of the RB19 as their starting point.

"It's been a very special period for the team and, hopefully, we can carry that momentum into next year," says Horner. "But I'm fully expecting, with stable regulations, there will be diminishing returns for us because I think we got to the top of the curve quicker than others.

"The field is going to converge," he insists, "and for us, it's difficult to know who that will be. Will it be McLaren? Will it be Ferrari? Will it be Mercedes? It keeps moving around behind us. That's what we're fully expecting as we go into next year."

Other than his team's rivals closing the gap, Horner admits that there is always the chance that Red Bull could effectively drop the ball.

"There's always a reset as you go into the following year," he says. "I'm convinced you'll see a lot more cars that perhaps look like an RB19 and its philosophy going into next year. It's inevitable they would do.

"If you stand still in this business, you tend to go backward, and I think we got up that curve quicker than others but, as I say, we're into a law of diminishing returns."

Frustratingly for its rivals, Red Bull's utter dominance came in spite of the restriction on wind tunnel time and CFD use, the result of exceeding the budget cap in 2021.

"Of course, with the lack of wind tunnel time that we've had, even though we transitioned early, we still had less time, in practice, than a great many of our opponents," says the Briton. "So we've had to be very frugal and selective of where we apply that time for RB20, that will try to build on the strengths of 19.

"All areas have been revisited in the car," he says of the RB20, "and we can't afford to have any complacency, so the car is very much an evolution of a theme.

"We're not reinventing the wheel," he adds. "That has been very much the route of the engineering path over the last twelve months."

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READERS COMMENTS

1. Posted by Spindoctor, 13/01/2024 13:03

"@kenji
Why indeed? I have long felt, along with many others, that the current F1 Regs are far too prescriptive, so much so that it is in essence getting close to the point of it being more rational to have a one chassis series.

Personally, I'd much prefer something closer to a "Formula Libre", where teams produce cars that meet a fairly broad specification, focusing primarily on matters such as safety, weight & maybe emissions\fuel consumption...

That way we might even see the return of the much-loved V10 & V12 engines, though I rather doubt they would be able to compete any more...."

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2. Posted by kenji, 10/01/2024 1:34

"@ Spindoctor...if what you posit actually occurs the why have a formula in the first instance? Getting towards the end of a era the introduction of a one make series seems to be inevitable....in essence."

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3. Posted by Spindoctor, 09/01/2024 11:12

"Copy, schmopy. It's called "evolution". It's no accident that most predatory aquatic animals tend to be highly streamlined: like sharks, Barracudas & dolphins. Variations between & within these species derive mainly from their adaption to particular environmental niches
As @Max Noble points-out the rules of F1 are incredibly prescriptive, the "environment" unvarying for all competitors. There are, therefore, a very limited number of "solutions" to the problem of designing a good car.

RBR hit upon a highly effective design almost straight away & the others are not blindly "copying", but are evolving their designs. If they are to be as efficient in the F1 environment as the RB19, they must of necessity incorporate many of the same features as RB19."

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4. Posted by BrightonCorgi, 08/01/2024 14:17

"Teams are obligated to design the car with best chance of winning. Be it a copy cat or not. Go with what is working."

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5. Posted by Max Noble, 08/01/2024 8:58

"At twenty paces with the cars all painted the same matt egg-shell colour I wonder how many designers could actually pick their own car! Unlike the 1990’s and backwards in time (Tyrrell six wheeler anyone…?) they all look so similar today, as they are all designed to highly prescriptive rules using CFD packages.

Heck… even the team principals look more alike today! No one would have confused Flavio with Todt… Paint both Wolff and Horner in the same matt egg shell paint, give Christian a box, and from 200M they would look identical. ;-) (or get Wolff to stand in a hole… same outcome…)

"

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6. Posted by kenji, 07/01/2024 14:02

"@Ricardo_sanchez...all cool mon ami. "

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7. Posted by Ricardo_sanchez, 07/01/2024 11:56

"@kenji - sorry if I misunderstood.

Earlier, you mentioned a "pink slip" and "P45" which I took to be you suggesting Wolff should be sacked or resign. Now I realise that was not what you meant and you were merely questioning Wolff's leadership. Based on his recent comments, it seems Wolff’s been doing his own questioning, very publicly.

The fact that finishing as championship runner up, or in third position, is considered a failure just shows what a high bar is set for the top teams."

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8. Posted by kenji, 07/01/2024 10:41

"@ Chester....Interesting comments. Personally I'm not really into underdoggies. Speaking as an individual I really don't 'see' the underdogs during a race. I am only really following the top six/ten cars with main focus on the top four or so. What happens further down the field may be interest if something out of the ordinary occurs but to all intents and purposes they are invisible to me. What I do like to see is 'cojones out' racing amongst the top five or so. That gets the juices flowing even for this rather well aged follower!!!"

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9. Posted by kenji, 07/01/2024 10:32

"@Endre...many thanks, your generosity is noted.

@ Ricardo_sanchez.... Why should Wolff have resigned? Que? I'm simply asking a question, whether 'should he or should he not' depart the prat perch. By his own admission he messed up badly [see thread on this very topic further down the list]. Wolff is the last stop in the command chain at team level and his errors would've placed undue pressures on the team and at substantially higher costs. He made the mistake of compounding the errors again in '23, admittedly for only around the first six races or so. Obviously he is not going to be given his marching orders but that doesn't mean that he can't be questioned and held liable in the court of public opinion. "

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10. Posted by Chester, 06/01/2024 14:44

"Hope springs eternal, as it should, this time of year. For guys like me who root for underdogs, the feeling is usually short-lived.

But I do admit, I love the Red Bull "apple cart upsetting" attitude. Get after those insular apple carts, sir!!"

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11. Posted by Ricardo_sanchez, 06/01/2024 12:02

"@Endre / @kenji - why should Wolff have resigned? Are you suggesting team principals should resign every time they fail to win a world championship?

Whatever your opinion of Wolff’s personality, he is one of the most successful F1 principals in the history of the sport. He also has a financial stake in the team he runs, so it’s unlikely he’ll be going anywhere anytime soon.

Imagine if Frank Williams had resigned in 1990, after failing to win the world championship for 3 years running. Or Colin Chapman had quit Lotus in 1977. Or Ron Dennis had quit McLaren in the mid 90s.

Despite the recent Netflix-fuelled lurch towards tribalism amongst fans, F1 principals are not yet hired & fired like the managers of football teams. And there can be only one world championship winning team, each year. "

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12. Posted by Endre, 05/01/2024 19:24

"@ClarkwasGod I am sorry, did he resign as team principle and CEO?? Because in that position he is certainly responsible for everyone working under him, including the design team. That is why he is getting paid the big bucks.

@kenji I see the Merc fanboys are showering you with love :) Sorry, I can only click "positive" once"

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13. Posted by ClarkwasGod, 05/01/2024 16:32

"@ Kenji

Wolff wasn't responsible for the design of either car - the guy who was, Mike Elliot, is no longer there, although there was no "knee-jerk" firing."

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14. Posted by ClarkwasGod, 05/01/2024 16:29

"Why would they not go down the same route? In 1979, most teams turned up with very similar cars to the previous season's gamechanger, the Lotus 79. In fact some, Williams especially, made a much better job of it (and the Lotus 80 was a dog)."

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15. Posted by kenji, 05/01/2024 11:02

"As a major global star marque what an admission of failure that would be Chester. It's bad enough already with the 'fizzy drinks' company flipping the bird to the famous three pointed star studded silver arrow which just happens to be black. Wolff, by his own admission, realised too late that he'd led them down the wrong rabbit hole! Should he get a pink slip and a P45?"

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Horner expecting grid of RB19 lookalikes

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